What we invest in
Prior to 1990, I was a pretty traditional domestic stock, and bond advisor.
The late 1989 fall of the Berlin wall changed everything, as a whole world of global markets opened up. My people made great returns in global bond, and emerging market funds , esp. ones in energy, and natural resources. We also did very well in early 1990's junk bond funds.
I was a doubting Thomas during the dot com craze of the late 1990's. We invested in chip, service providers and hardware firms that would survive any crash. We owned ZERO dot com holdings when the bloodbath hit in early 2000.
Like the Berlin wall in 1989, the events of September 11, 2001 changes the world.
While most of wall street stumbled, I developed a simple post 9/11 thesis: War ALWAYS results in expanded money supply, debt, inflation, and higher raw commodity prices. Our post 9/11 track record is based on the success of that simple thesis.
We have outperformed by staying out of most US blue chips, and overweighed energy, resource, mining and agriculture investments. We have also done very well over time in foreign government bonds.
The explosion in the number of public companies, and ETF's is great for people who understand economics and markets.
How do I see global markets in 2014 and beyond: The US blue chip market is very overvalued, given the real weakness of the underlying main street American economy. The fed central banks program of QE bond buying has been a unmitigated failure. QE has created a blue chip bubble, while inflating the prices of basic goods like food, fuel and medical care.
QE is leading us down the road to an eventual bad end, of the US dollar as the worlds reserve currency.
Diversification away from the dollar risk every American faces, has never been more important. Wall street promises real diversification, but it just never really delivers. We do!
I can't promise you we will always beat the sp500 in the future. I can only promise you that you won't find anybody who works harder than me to find good investment ideas and takes the results more personally.
I eat what I kill, meaning my own money is invested in the exact same newsletter model portfolio your money goes in. Thus, we sink or swim together. The investing world would be greatly improved if every advisor was forced to invest their own money the same way as their client money.
At the end of the day, our success is based on just 3 things: Work ethic, using defensive limit/stop orders, and thinking outside the box of conventional wall street thinking.
As always no question, or suggestion is out of bounds for the people who trust me to be a good steward of their life savings !